South Korea’s fertility crisis could shift regional power balances

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South Korea still relies on conscription to maintain its military strength. The number of draftees, which represents around half of the force, could fall from 330,000 soldiers in 2020 to 240,000 by 2036 and 186,000 by 2039. Without radical changes, sustaining South Korea’s formidable military posture will become impossible. Population decline represents an existential threat to South Korea. Its turbulent and nuclear-armed neighbour, North Korea, maintains around one million troops. Rising power China, which also has nuclear weapons, has two million. National emergency An ageing and emptying South Korea would be an easy target for coercion. Pyongyang may even conclude...