Demography is not destiny but it does shape economic outcomes


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The United Nations (UN) has said that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year. The statement has naturally attracted a lot of public attention. There can be some debate on whether this demographic event will take place this year or not. India has not had a full census since 2011. All we have right now are estimates. The UN says that there will be 1.43 billion Indians by the middle of 2023. Indian government estimates are lower. The Technical Group on Population Projection of the Indian census office said in July 2020 that it expects...