Bonds v stocks: which market is calling it right?


Source: afr.com afr.com

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The government bond market, by contrast, is convinced there’s a recession looming, that growth will crater, and central banks’ battle against inflation will therefore succeed. The US 10-year bond yield has slumped to 3.4 per cent, well below the short-term rate of 5 per cent, while about 1.5 percentage points of rate cuts are priced in from the Federal Reserve, which is actually forecasting a recession – the most widely anticipated in history. In Australia, the bond market has taken the view that interest rates aren’t going anywhere for about a decade. The government issued $14 billion of bonds with...