Tariff
Blame Donald Trump’s tariffs for all that persistent inflation. A new analysis from the New York Federal Reserve finds that if Trump hadn’t hammered us with tariffs, prices on consumer goods would have gone down: In the chart below, the solid line shows the twelve-month change in consumer goods prices, and the dashed line shows the counterfactual without tariffs. Goods price inflation was back near its slightly negative pre-COVID average for most of 2024 and began to edge up late that year, before the new tariffs were introduced. It then picked up through 2025. Our estimates attribute this increase to…
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