US assesses Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say

The U.S. intelligence and defense officials have assessed that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is unlikely next year, according to two current U.S. officials. The updated assessment points to key delays in military readiness driven by the Chinese Communist Party’s ongoing anti-corruption campaign. Additionally, Beijing is reportedly waiting to see the results of Taiwan’s 2028 election, hoping it could usher in a government more amenable to bringing the island under control. However, sources note that if Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term—particularly if President Lai Ching-te wins reelection—Beijing may increasingly weigh military options in 2028…