Can China Turn Energy Dependence into Diplomatic Power in the Middle East?

For decades, China’s relationship with the Middle East appeared to rest on a straightforward bargain: the region supplied energy, while China supplied an expanding market. But that transactional equation no longer captures the structural transformation underway. In 2025, China sourced roughly half of its crude oil and almost one-third of its liquefied natural gas from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar remain major suppliers, Meanwhile, tanker-tracking data from Kpler indicate that China imported an average of around 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2025. Yet China is no longer merely…