Anthropic’s $2 Trillion Bet Is That Nothing Goes Wrong

The most revealing aspect of a $2 trillion Anthropic IPO is not the staggering valuation, but the suspension of disbelief required to justify it. To buy into that number, investors must assume that artificial intelligence is becoming economically indispensable at breakneck speed, that a formidable moat will protect a handful of frontier-model developers, and that the exorbitant costs of computing infrastructure will not eventually crush their margins. More crucially – they must wager that the political, technical, and institutional risks inherent to an increasingly geopolitically competitive landscape will play second fiddle to the growth story. Reports of Anthropic’s internal projections…