India could shine once AI capex peaks

The outlook across major global markets remains differentiated, with earnings and interest rates shaping performance. In the US, the outlook is supported by strong earnings expectations, with consensus forecasting 20% S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, though a disorderly rise in bond yields remains the key risk, with around 5% on the 30-year US Treasury seen as a critical threshold policymakers will seek to defend. In Japan, earnings are also a tailwind, and rising bond yields have been supportive for equities this cycle, with bank stocks up 23% in 2026 in US dollar terms, reinforcing a constructive “risk-on” environment as…