The strait may reopen, but global confidence may not return

United States President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been largely negotiated may calm markets temporarily. But the deeper significance of the current crisis lies elsewhere. The issue is no longer only whether trade routes remain open but who has the power to condition access to them. The specific terms of any agreement may evolve, and any diplomatic arrangement may still be delayed, contested or revised. But the broader pattern is already visible: Strategic trade routes are becoming more politically managed, commercially exposed and geopolitically contested. The danger is not necessarily that diplomacy…