Separating business of war from economics of oil

With the US-Iran conflict moving into its third month, an ominous suspense pervades global energy markets. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the flow of a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and triggered the largest energy disruption in history. With more than a billion barrels of oil already lost, the soaring benchmark crude prices are maintaining an extreme upward pressure on refined products like diesel and jet fuel, with a cross-sectoral effect. The shortage of sulphur (a by-product of crude oil and gas processing critical for fertiliser production) and loss of fertiliser…