Despite what Trump says, Russian oil imports to India can’t be wished away after US trade deal

Ritolia expects Russian imports to India to remain broadly stable in the 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) range through the first quarter (January-March) and early second quarter (April-June) of 2026, meaning the trade deal may not immediately translate into lower Russian intake. Kpler data showed that in January 2026, India imported around 1.16 mbpd from Russia, accounting for about 22 percent of total imports for the month—the highest for any country in the timeframe. Russia was followed by Iraq (20 percent), Saudi Arabia (15 percent), United Arab Emirates (8 percent) and the United States (6 percent). The India-US trade…