Beware the rosy 2026 economic forecasts, for pride comes before a fall

John Rapley is a contributing columnist for The Globe and Mail. He is an author and academic whose books include Why Empires Fall and Twilight of the Money Gods. Despite being buffeted by Donald Trump’s trade war, the Canadian economy proved resilient in 2025. Although some sectors faced real hardship, the economy as a whole managed to eke out a modest gain and employment recovered from earlier in the year – a contrast to what’s happening south of the border, where unemployment is now rising. Will 2026 bring more of the same, or will the economy finally succumb to external…