Will we be back in the Rose Garden for Liberation Day Part 2 in three months?

It's been hard to keep up this week. And even more difficult to put what is happening in some kind of context. The "tl/dr" (too long, don't read) version is that Trump was forced into a stunning retreat, which has left a possible pathway to avoiding a full-scale global trade war, but big risks and uncertainties remain. Markets are on a rollercoaster, driven by the latest pronouncements from Washington. Behind it all lies a creeping realisation that the world is changing shape and no one is quite sure where it will settle. This is about a lot more than tariffs,…