Trump trade war: Why a figure of 48% is important as escalation nears

Here is a number to lodge in your brain in the coming weeks and months: 48%. Last year a group of economists carried out an an analysis on the economic impact of the Iron Curtain; how much trade actually took place from east to west in spite of all the restrictions during the Cold War. They came to the conclusion that, at its height in 1951, “the Iron Curtain represented a tariff equivalent of 48%”. As the world limbers up ahead of what Donald Trump calls his “liberation day”, that figure is worth keeping in your mind. Right now, the…