'Home bias' will rise in fragmented investment world

If Donald Trump's second presidency truly signals the end of the postwar U.S.-led, international order, cross-border investment flows could change dramatically, as inward-looking investors may start keeping more of their capital at home. Replacing multilateral institutions, international accords and established norms with unilateralism, protectionism and defined spheres of influence could lead to greater geopolitical tensions, reduced immigration, a move toward national industrial policy and a more unpredictable business environment. As Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok puts it, we could be moving from "globalization to segmentation," which could lead to increased 'home bias' among investors. Given the enormous scale of current…