Surprises can swing stocks – the key is judging whether they're positive

My 2024 outlook projected a strong year for global stocks, with the TSX lagging early before a late revival. So far, so good on that call. World stocks notched 15.9-per-cent gains through June 14, far ahead of the TSX's 4.7 per cent. More gains await - globally and even in Canada, where the lag and a June swoon has deepened pessimism. Sound counterintuitive? Consider: Stocks move most on the gaps between expectations and the subsequent reality. So gauging sentiment - what investors anticipate markets doing - is crucial. There are hard and easy ways to do it. Today, both signal…