SP500 Index: Crude Oil Signals An Imminent Recession

peshkov The FOMO bounce The S&P 500 (SP500) bounced sharply in November, primarily responding to the falling interest rates. Specifically, due to 1) weaker than expected jobs data for October and 2) lower than expected CPI inflation for October, the market participants priced not only the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle, but also a more aggressive Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. As a result, the long-term rates (TLT) fell as well, primarily reflecting the fall in real rates due to the general loosening of financial conditions. In addition to the expectations of the interest rate cuts in 2024,…