Ukraine war: Nobody is winning this conflict – but a stalemate would do for Vladimir Putin

In July, the then Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said that he “believes that Ukraine will win the war by next summer and could be admitted to NATO in July 2024”. The reality of what Ukraine has really achieved on the ground would suggest this was an overly optimistic assessment – but who is winning? In early June, Ukraine launched its long-expected counteroffensive against the Russian defences, having had some significant successes in late 2022. They had tied Russia up around Bakhmut, exhausting the Wagner fighters to the point where they had to be withdrawn from the frontline. With the…