Beijing is running out of time to avoid ‘Japanification’


Source: afr.com afr.com

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First, the excesses appear greater: the urban residential property vacancy rate is around 20 per cent in China versus 9 per cent in Japan in 1990, and house prices are more stretched relative to household income in China (20 times) versus in Japan (11 times in 1990). Secondly, “the property linkage to the rest of the economy is stronger: residential investment share of GDP was about twice as high in China in 2020 as in Japan in 1990, gross land sales accounted for around 30 per cent of local government revenues in China in 2020, which was not the case...