Why investors will pay the price as US de-friends China

Not so fast. A look under the data hood reveals important qualifications. First, the overall volume of Chinese exports has not receded from its post-lockdown highs. Not only that, but as the volume of global imports has declined over the same period, this implies an increase in China's global export share. How does this square with news about increased export penetration - that is, friend-shoring of supply chains to countries like Mexico and Vietnam? Well, those countries have imported a lot more from China - their higher trade surpluses with the US have, to a significant extent, been offset by…