A year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, what have we learned?

This Friday marks the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine — a devastating war that did not have to happen and shows no sign of ending anytime soon. While first and foremost my thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine and the suffering they have endured from an unprovoked invasion by a much larger neighbor, anniversaries are also a time for reflection. Looking back, three lessons stand out as paramount, all of which are united by a common thread: 1) Geopolitical developments can be difficult to predict ahead of time and we need to entertain a wider range…