News Snapshot:
Scenario Introduction Our core view at Fitch Solutions is that China and Taiwan will avoid full-scale conflict over the next five years, as both sides grudgingly accept the status quo in cross-Strait relations. Despite China’s growing dissatisfaction with Taiwan’s de facto independence, it will refrain from an attack on the island, as the risks of failing to coerce Taiwan to accept Chinese control are too high for the leadership in Beijing. For its part, Taiwan will avoid steps towards declaring independence, for fear of provoking a sharp Chinese response. Nevertheless, for the purposes of risk analysis and scenario planning, we...
